Wimbledon Preview - Bet Against Fed At Own Risk
If you are betting against Roger Federer repeating, again, as Wimbledon champion, you do so at your own risk.
So many are expecting, and I suspect desperately want to see Federer fall flat on his face. Why would they want the best player and best ambassador that tennis has ever had go out early? Perhaps they are tired of talking about how great Federer is. Maybe they just want to see someone else be the top player. I don’t care what the reason is, it just isn’t going to happen.
Federer (and I’ll say it again for the millionth time) started the year with mono, an illness that kept Mario Ancic off the tour for 6 months last year. He still managed to reach the semis in Melbourne and still didn’t play his best until the clay court season was underway. As much as I and a lot of others wanted Federer to win in Paris, it wasn’t going to happen and everyone knew it. Still he reached the finals in Monte Carlo and Hamburg and had leads on Nadal.
That blowout loss to Nadal in Paris is a non-factor. Lopsided loses like that don’t factor into a champion’s psyche. Had the match been a 5 hour marathon with Federer holding match points, I would feel differently about his chances at Wimbledon. How did Federer react to the loss? By winning Halle (again) without dropping serve. He may not have faced a top 10 opponent but still, to win a title without dropping serve should give a pretty good indication about what will happen starting Monday.
As for Rafael Nadal, it will be a very interesting fortnight for him. So many are saying he should be No. 1 based on his play (hilarious) or that he is the biggest threat to Federer this year (again, hilarious). Let’s face it, Nadal is a great player, for about 4 months. From Monte Carlo (late April) to Wimbledon (early July), he’s the second best player. The other 8 months, he gets blitzed by Davydenko, Seppi, Youzhney and other non-noteable players. There is no reason to think that Nadal won’t falter early. He will face either John Isner or Ernests Gulbis in the second round. In the words of Scooby Doo: Ruh roh. Nadal’s path includes others like dark horse Nicolas Kiefer, Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet and Mikhail Youzhny. That’s just to get out of his quarter. If he does get out, he could face Andy Roddick or Nikolay Davydenko who blitzed him in the finals of Miami. I have the feeling Nadal packed only enough clothes for 1 week, not 2.
As for the other pretender contender, Novak Djokovic, taking jabs at Federer when your own accomplishments barely fill a couple of paragraphs is just not smart. You beat a mono-stricken Federer in Melbourne. Still, he took you through three very tough sets before you won 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (7-5). No no, you say that with pride. Don’t be ashamed that a sick Federer almost took you out. How did you follow that up? You lost in the second round in Marseille to Gilles Simon, then to Andy Roddick in Dubai. You followed up your win in Indian Wells with a humiliating loss to Kevin Anderson in Miami. A note to Novak: champions don’t run their mouth about other players, they tend to follow up wins in big tournaments with, well, wins in big tournaments. You need to work on that.
Novak retired (surprisingly) while losing to Federer in Monte Carlo. He didn’t face a top 20 opponent en route to the Rome title. Novak is very much the third ranked player and is yet to be a serious threat to Nadal, let alone Federer.
Still, Novak has a pretty clear path to the fourth round with the only big player he could face is Marat Safin who I would say will take a set off Novak. After that it’s Stanislas Wawrinka who again, could take a set but not much else. It’s the quarterfinal where Novak will either rise to the occasion or come up with some excuse to pull out of the match. He could face 2006 semifinalist and 2007 quarterfinalist Marcos Baghdatis, former finalist David Nalbandian who Novak routed in Queen’s or hard serving Ivo Karlovic. Since Novak admits he doesn’t move well on grass, he may not even make it to Federer.
Dark Horses
Andy Roddick
Nicolas Kiefer
Tommy Haas
Ivo Karlovic
Marcos Baghdatis
The first round match you don’t want to miss…
Gasquet vs. Fish. Gasquet has shown life of late but this should be interesting, I would say Gasquet in 5.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Federer vs. Ancic
Djokovic vs. Karlovic
Roddick vs. Davydenko
Nadal vs. Gasquet
Semifinals
Federer vs. Karlovic
Roddick vs. Nadal
Finals
Federer over Nadal in 4 sets