Australian Open Men’s Preview: Can Murray Be Stopped?
Rafael Nadal ESP (1) v Christophe Rochus BEL
Florent Serra FRA v Roko Karanusic CRO
Eduardo Schwank ARG v Tommy Haas GER
Qualifier v Dmitry Tursunov RUS (29)
Richard Gasquet FRA (24) v Diego Junqueira ARG
Vincent Spadea USA v Denis Istomin UZB
Guillermo Canas ARG v Nicolas Kiefer GER
Lleyton Hewitt AUS v Fernando Gonzalez CHI (13)
Gael Monfils FRA (12) v Martin Vassallo Arguello ARG
Mikhail Youzhny RUS v Stefan Koubek AUT
Andrey Golubev KAZ v Fabio Fognini ITA
Nicolas Massu CHI v Nicolas Almagro ESP (17)
Ivo Karlovic CRO (25) v Daniel Gimeno-Traver ESP
Filippo Volandri ITA v Mario Ancic CRO
Chris Guccione AUS v Nicolas Devilder FRA
Pablo Andujar ESP v Gilles Simon FRA (6)
Andy Murray GBR (4) v Andrei Pavel ROU
Teimuraz Gabashvili RUS v Marcel Granollers ESP
Qualifier v Colin Ebelthite AUS
Kei Nishikori JPN v Jurgen Melzer AUT (31)
Radek Stepanek CZE (22) v Nicolas Lapentti ECU
Qualifier v Carsten Ball AUS
Sergiy Stakhovsky UKR v Arnaud Clement FRA
Adrian Mannarino FRA v Fernando Verdasco ESP (14)
James Blake USA (9) v Qualifier
Qualifier v Steve Darcis BEL
Albert Montanes ESP v Ernests Gulbis LAT
Qualifier v Igor Andreev RUS (18)
Rainer Schuettler GER (30) v Qualifier
Victor Hanescu ROU v Jan Hernych CZE
Ivan Ljubicic CRO v Igor Kunitsyn RUS
Juan Monaco ARG v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (5)
Andy Roddick USA (7) v Qualifier
Qualifier v Michael Llodra FRA
Juan Carlos Ferrero ESP v Fabrice Santoro FRA
Sam Querrey USA v Philipp Kohlschreiber GER (32)
Tommy Robredo ESP (21) v Bobby Reynolds USA
Alberto Martin ESP v Viktor Troicki SRB
Thomaz Bellucci BRA v Yen-Hsun Lu TPE
Marc Gicquel FRA v David Nalbandian ARG (10)
Robin Soderling SWE (16) v Robert Kendrick USA
Julien Benneteau FRA v Marcos Baghdatis CYP
Simone Bolelli ITA v Kristof Vliegen BEL
Samuel Groth AUS v Mardy Fish USA (23)
Paul-Henri Mathieu FRA (28) v Jarkko Nieminen FIN
Taylor Dent USA v Qualifier
Jeremy Chardy FRA v Marcos Daniel BRA
Qualifier v Novak Djokovic SRB (3)
Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (8) v Mischa Zverev GER
Qualifier v Qualifier
Potito Starace ITA v Bernard Tomic AUS
Gilles Muller LUX v Feliciano Lopez ESP (27)
Marin Cilic CRO (19) v Kevin Anderson RSA
Oscar Hernandez ESP v Janko Tipsarevic SRB
Qualifier v John Isner USA
Denis Gremelmayr GER v David Ferrer ESP (11)
Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (15) v Ivo Minar CZE
Qualifier v Brydan Klein AUS
Brian Dabul ARG v Philipp Petzschner GER
Robby Ginepri USA v Tomas Berdych CZE (20)
Marat Safin RUS (26) v Ivan Navarro ESP
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez ESP v Agustin Calleri ARG
Qualifier v Carlos Moya ESP
Andreas Seppi ITA v Roger Federer SUI (2)
This is not the draw that Rafael Nadal wanted. A third round matchup could involve Tommy Haas, Eduardo Schwank or Dmitry Tursunov. While none may stop Nadal from advancing, they could push him to 4 sets before a probable fourth round match against Richard Gasquet, Lleyton Hewitt or 2007 finalist Gonzalez but it will most likely be Gasquet who has been playing very well lately. Waiting in the quarterfinals is 12th seeded Gael Monfils who upset Nadal in Qatar a couple of weeks ago. Nadal hasn’t been in top form so far this year and if he isn’t ready, Monfils could take advantage and knock Nadal out.
Andy Murray is playing great tennis so far and his improved fitness seems to be paying off. Still, there are a couple of players in his quarter he needs to be ready for. Kei Nishikori could be his third round opponent. Nishikori solidified his spot as a player to watch and he would love nothing more than to continue his rise by taking care of Murray but it’s unlikely. James Blake, the 9th seed, could cause some trouble but I can’t imagine he’s going to get the chance to play Murray. Instead, last year’s finalist, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be big trouble. Tsonga’s main concern is to stay healthy and his lower back has been causing problems. More likely is the biggest dark horse in the field, Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis has been lurking around for the last year and is ready to make a run. Murray needs to be on top of his game or Gulbis will send him home.
Novak Djokovic has a pretty easy time until a possible match with Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals. The biggest potential problem for Novak is 16th seeded Robin Soderling. Soderling can be dangerous as shown in his epic 5 set match against Nadal at Wimbledon in 2007 but he is also inconsistent. Depending on what Soderling shows up, Novak could cruise or be in for a 5 set marathon. Andy Roddick on the other hand should have an easy time until facing David Nalbandian in the fourth round. Nalbandian is coming off a title win which gives him a lot of confidence but it may not be enough against a highly motivated Roddick.
I’m pretty surprised that many think Roger Federer has a tough draw. Federer just beat Carlos Moya in Kooyong and Moya is well past his prime and not to mention it has been 12 years since Moya broke out and reached the finals here. Roger could face Marat Safin but unless it is the same Safin who beat Federer here in the semifinals a few years ago or the Safin that upended Djokovic at Wimbledon, it should be a fairly easy win for Roger. The biggest problem would come in the quarterfinals in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro or Marin Cilic. Del Potro won the title in Auckland and has lots of confidence, it will be interesting to see how he fares against Roger.
Prediction
Quarterfinals
Monfils def. Nadal
Murray def. Gulbis
Roddick def. Djokovic
Federer def. Cilic
Semifinals
Monfils def. Murray
Federer def. Roddick
Finals
Federer def. Monfils
I’m going out on a limb here to pick Monfils upsetting Murray but given that Murray has only twice gotten past the fourth round at a Slam and while he has played great so far this year, it’s always different to play a Slam. The pressure is more intense and for Murray, the focus of an entire nation watching you, criticizing you, praising you as you get further and further into a tournament is going to be something to see. For the first time, he is going to be the favourite to win a Slam and to see him handle the pressure will be interesting.
First round match to watch: Hewitt vs. Gonzalez. Are you starting to think that Hewitt is getting tired of these 5 set marathons?
Dark Horses and Players Who Need A Breakthrough
Ernests Gulbis, Robin Soderling, Kei Nishikori, Gael Monfils and Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis broke through here in a big way and did well for a year afterwards but really needs to get back on track.