Australian Open Womens Preview - Unbeatable Henin Gets Beat
We’ve all heard it for a year now, that Justine Henin is the women’s equivalent to Roger Federer. Maybe. Maybe not. I’ll opt for ‘Maybe not’. Don’t get me wrong, I love Henin, always have, always will. I just don’t thinkm she’s as unbeatable as everyone thinks and I don’t think the others on the WTA Tour think so either. Her thing is that she always finds a way to win and that mental toughness, never say die attitude is a huge tool for her.
Still….Henin won’t win the Australian Open this year, her draw is a pretty big mountain to climb. She’ll cruise to the fourth round where she will face Tatiana Golovin. Golovin made huge inroads last year and wants desperately to be in the top 10, she is tired of being second fiddle to Mauresmo and an upset over Henin would be huge Don’t forget either that Golovin took Henin to three sets twice last year. If Henin makes it through there, she will face either Shahar Peer, Lindsay Davenport or Maria Sharapova. Henin doesn’t want to face any of them, especially Davenport or Sharapova. Henin hasn’t faced Peer since the ‘06 US Open which Henin won in a rout but like Golovin, Peer wants her breakthrough now and is much better since their last meeting. Davenport, as good as she has been playing, hasn’t faced any real top players instead choosing to play in lower events which she predictably wins. Henin would be a major test but Sharapova has the best chance at beating Henin.
Jelena Jankovic must not have been impressed when she saw her draw. Can’t a Serb get a break these days? She will have the toughest first rounder for any of the top seeds against Tamira Paszek. Me no likey. I am actually hoping for a tough match against Paszek as I want to see how her hamstring holds up. The new surface at the Australian Open is slower so Jankovic will have to hit harder which will be a problem with her serve. Still, Jankovic should prevail.
Also in that quarter are Amelie Mauresmo, Nicole Vaidisova (who beat Jankovic in Sydney this week) and defending champ Serena Williams. Again the new surface is slower so the power of these three will be dulled a bit which should help Jankovic should she play any of them.
The third quarter may be the easiest. Venus Williams may be the only road block for Ana Ivanovic but Venus doesn’t really scare me or anyone else for that matter. She beat Ivanovic at Wimbledon last year but I think Ivanovic is a woman on a mission and at the first Slam, a lot of top players aren’t on their game. I am hoping for a great Ivanovic-Safina fourth round match though.
In the last quarter, Anna Chakvetadze may be the sure bet but I am going with Agnes Szavay. Of all the youngsters, Szavay impresses me the most and Svetlana Kuznetsova may be the number two ranked player but Szavay will take her out in the fourth round.
Quarterfinals
Golovin (I know, it’s a stretch) vs. Davenport
Jankovic vs. Vaidisova
Williams vs. Ivanovic
Kirilenko (Again, a stretch) vs. Szavay
Semifinals
Davenport vs. Jankovic
Ivanovic vs. Szavay
Finals
Jankovic beating Ivanovic. Not as much of a stretch as some would think of Jankovic taking the title. If that hamstring doesn’t flare up, she has the best shot.
The First Round Match You Just Can’t Miss
Jankovic vs. Paszek. Jankovic should pull this one out.
No Big First Round Upsets But Don’t Miss The Third Round…
Why didn’t you see Serena Williams in my quarterfinal predictions? Because she will face Victoria Azarenka in the third round. Yep, I’m calling it. Azarenka will take out the defending champ. Also, Henin vs. Golovin? I’m going to take Golovin in the this one. Why? I can’t explain it but I feel the same way about this one as I did when Sharapova faced Radwanska at the US Open last year and we know how that turned out. Also, Maria Kirilenko over compatriot Chakvetadze. Not sure if it will end in an upset or not but Kuznetsova could face Radwanska in the third round. Kuznetsova isn’t scaring anyone and Radwanska knows how to play on the big stage.
January 21st, 2008 at 2:35 pm
All but one of your Quater-Final Predictions are wrong. I guess that ‘feeling’ you were having was wrong…
January 22nd, 2008 at 1:04 am
No kidding. Goes to show you that predicting outcomes that far in advance is not an exact science. I remember a couple of years ago Jon Wertheim of SI.com predicted that Gael Monfils would reach the semis of the US Open and needless to say, he wasn’t even close.
I was really surprised that Szavay and Golovin went out early. I was really hoping to see Golovin take on Henin, guess we will have to wait another time.
I was pretty close with Kirilenko though but to see Radwanska in the quarters is pretty sweet.