Future Tennis Stars

Congratulations Rafael Nadal, you’re officially, finally, the top ranked player in the world.

Now comes the hard part: staying the top ranked player in the world.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Nadal, he’s the perfect rival for Federer. Now that Nadal is number 1 and Federer is number 2, it only adds another dimension to their rivalry. Only 770 points separate Federer and Nadal.

Now no one can see into the future. Nadal could hold this ranking for a year, two years, three years or six months. What Nadal will see now is that he isn’t chasing anyone anymore. He’s caught Federer and now he’s the top dog and everyone, especially Roger, is chasing him.

Here’s how this could break down for Nadal. How long he lasts at number 1 depends mostly on how well he plays, not necessarily on how well everyone else plays. As I have said in a previous post ( Rafael Nadal Is Great…But Is No Federer ), Nadal is historically an average player from January to May and July to November. This year though, he’s not just better, he’s a totally different player. He reached the semis in Melbourne, semis in Indian Wells and finals in Miami. After his usual clay court tear, he won Queen’s, Wimbledon, Toronto and reached the semis in Cincinnati then won the gold in Beijing. I don’t know who this Rafael Nadal is but he’s definitely not the one who won only 1 title last year after Wimbledon, on clay in Stuttgart last year.

So why could this not last for Nadal?

For one, he has been doing so well for so much of the year that you have to wonder when, or if, this will all catch up to him. Will he crash out of the US Open after an exhausting summer and do little in the fall? Will he be unable to recapture the points he gained in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami? Will he have a meltdown during the clay court season and lose the bulk of his points?

All fair questions considering Nadal is such a physical player. The taxing season takes its toll on everyone and Nadal is not immune. As great a physical specimen as he is, he will eventually tire or suffer an injury trying to push himself too hard. If anyone has to reconsider his schedule, it’s him.

What’s next for Federer?

Well, it’s simple: play better. He’s the 4 time defending champion at the US Open and he needs to win it again. A Slam is 1000 points in the rankings and Roger can’t afford to give up any to Nadal. Following the US Open, Federer has a total of 1325 points to defend from Madrid, Basel, Paris and Shanghai. Compare that to Nadal’s paltry 625 points from Madrid, Paris and Shanghai and Nadal could gain quite a bit more from Federer if Roger doesn’t step it up in a hurry.

But there is hope for you Fed fanatics out there.

From January to April of this year, Nadal racked up 1245 points in Chennai, Melbourne, Rotterdam, Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami.  Federer for his part has 975 points from Melbourne, Dubai (he actually has none there), Indian Wells, Miami and Estoril. Roger could pick up a lot of points here if Nadal doesn’t revert back to his form from 2005-2007 where he was just average on hard courts.

From after Roland Garros and up to, but not including, Beijing (since it won’t count next year), Federer has a grand total of 1005 points. Nadal meanwhile has almost double that with 1950 points.

Was this year a fluke, or a sign of what’s to come?

It’s hard to imagine that Federer is going downhill just yet. Sure he’s on a slippery slope right now but usually when a player starts the long road into retirement, it’s marked by injuries or personal troubles. None of which Federer has, that we know of anyway. Sampras, Graf, Seles, Capriati, Agassi either were hurt or had serious girlfriends who they eventually married, the so-called wife jinx. When was the last time Federer showed up to a tournament with his leg taped? He probably leads the tour in fewest requests for the trainer. We all know he had mono at the start of the year which threw off his training and his year didn’t really begin until Monte Carlo. Still, after early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati you have to wonder just what is going on with Roger and his mighty forehand. He needs to prove that this year was a mistake, out of sight and out of mind and focus on the task at hand: winning.

Rafael for his part needs to find a way to do what he did this year all the time. He has never competed at the top level year round before and if his body can take the stress, then he could easily dominate on hard courts, clay and grass. The key to his continued success is the clay court season but it may be too much for him. The constant pounding on clay and the need to win Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg, Paris and not to mention Barcelona as well is a tad much. He needs to move away from being the greatest clay courter to being the greatest period. If he doesn’t win Monte Carlo, fine. If he doesn’t win in Paris, it’s ok, as long as it means he will be able to compete in Montreal, New York, Miami, Melbourne on a consistent basis.

For the first time in 4 1/2 years, Federer isn’t the top ranked player. Now an incredible year just got even better.

With all the talk these days about how Roger Federer is going downhill and that Rafael Nadal is poised to take over the top spot, I was finally able to stop laughing hard enough to write the other side of the story.

Don’t get me wrong, I love watching Rafael Nadal play and have been a huge fan since he first got on tour.

However, if you look at Rafael’s track record, he’s really a 4 month a year player. From the time Monte Carlo starts to when Wimbledon ends, Nadal is the top player, hands down. But before Monte Carlo and after Wimbledon, Nadal is average and in the last couple of years, virtually a non-factor in tournaments. If he wins before Monte Carlo or after Wimbledon, it’s on clay and to date, he has won only 5 titles on hard courts

A Closer Look - 2005

2005 was Rafael Nadal’s breakthrough year and still, his best year to date.

Before Monte Carlo
Nadal played 8 events, 4 on clay and won 2 of them in Brazil and Mexico. Of 31 matches played, he won 25 of them.

Monte Carlo - Wimbledon
Nadal started tearing up clay, going 24-0 winning in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Paris. He lost in the first round in Halle and in the second round at Wimbledon. He finished up at 25-2, a 95.59 winning percentage.

After Wimbledon
2005 remains the only time that Nadal didn’t go into the tank after Wimbledon. He won in Bastad, Stuttgart, Montreal, Beijing and Madrid. He went an astounding 28-2 and won Masters Series titles in Montreal and Madrid.

A Closer Look - 2006

In 2006, Nadal won 5 titles and only 1 on hard courts.

Before Monte Carlo
Nadal played only 4 events and won his 4th hard court title, beating Roger Federer en route to the Dubai crown. Nadal did reach the semifinals of Indian Wells and Marseille but lost easily to Carlos Moya in Miami.

Monte Carlo - Wimbledon
Not surprisingly, Nadal went undefeated on clay, going 24-0. He lost in the quarters in Queen’s and reached his first Wimbledon final, losing to Federer. In total, he went 32-2, an incredible 94.1 winning percentage.

After Wimbledon
Nadal’s post-Wimbledon efforts were, in a word, poor. In 6 events, he went 14-7 (he lost twice in the Masters Cup). He reached only 2 semifinals and no finals. It wouldn’t be until he won in Indian Wells in March 2007 when Rafael would even reach another final, a span of 11 events.

A Closer Look - 2007

Nadal had a better year in 2007, going 71-15 and winning 6 titles including 5 on clay.

Before Monte Carlo
Nadal played 6 events, reaching only 1 final when he won the Indian Wells title. He would end up going 18-5.

Monte Carlo - Wimbledon
In 7 events, Nadal won 4: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Paris. Federer beat Nadal in Hamburg, winning the third set 6-0 in what to many was a signal that Federer would win in Paris. He wouldn’t. Nadal again lost in Queen’s in the quarterfinals and again reached the finals at Wimbledon. He would go 34-3

After Wimbledon
After his 5 set loss to Federer in the finals, Nadal went back to clay and won his fifth clay title of the year in Stuttgart. En route to the title, Nadal faced only 1 player in the top 30, No. 29 ranked Juan Monaco. After his Stuttgart win, Nadal would reach only 1 final, in Paris, and 2 semifinals. He again lost easily to Federer in the semifinals of the Masters Cup. From Stuttgart in ‘07 through Miami ‘08, Nadal would not win a title.

A Closer Look - 2008

If you’re noticing a pattern with Nadal, you’re not alone. Prior to Monte Carlo, Nadal would go without a win.  In fact, Rafael Nadal has only won 4 titles prior to Monte Carlo since 2005 and only 2 of those are on hard courts: Indian Wells in 2007 and Dubai in 2006.

Before Monte Carlo
Nadal not only would lose but lose easily. In his 6 losses, he would win an average of 6.6 games a match in those defeats.

In Chennai, he lost to Mikhail Youzhney (ranked #19) 6-1, 6-0; in Melbourne, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (ranked #38) beat Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2; Andreas Seppi beat Nadal in Rotterdam 3-6, 6-3, 6-4; Andy Roddick beat Nadal in Dubai 7-6 (7-5), 6-2; Novak Djokovic routed Nadal in Indian Wells 6-3, 6-2; Nikolay Davydenko lost only six games to Nadal in Miami, 6-4, 6-2.

Monte Carlo - Queen’s
Of course, as in year’s past, Nadal’s season didn’t really begin until Monte Carlo where he won the title without dropping a set. He dropped only one set en route to the Barcelona title and two sets in Hamburg. The only time he lost on clay was to Ferrero in Rome. He once again won the French Open and did so without dropping a set including the 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 beatdown of Federer in the finals. Nadal followed it up with his lone win on grass in Queen’s where he beat Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlovic and Novak Djokovic en route to the title.

Win / Loss and Titles

Really, Nadal is a clay court player and the best there ever was at that. Federer is no slouch on clay and has not only beaten him (in Hamburg in ‘07) but had the classic 5 setter in Rome in ‘06 where he had two match points against Nadal. In 2008, Federer had leads on Nadal in the finals of Monte Carlo and Hamburg but Nadal still won.

Off the hard courts, it’s a totally different story. Nadal is good on hardcourts but he hasn’t improved in recent years like he has on grass. His season is really two seasons, clay and grass from April to July, then everything else.

Record from January to Monte Carlo, 2005-2008
76 wins - 20 losses, a 79.17 winning percentage.
24 events played, 4 titles and 2 of those came on clay. Of the 20 events he didn’t win, he was the runner-up in 3 of them.

Record from Monte Carlo through Wimbledon, 2005-2008
118 wins - 8 losses, a ridiculous 93.65 winning percentage.
25 events played, 17 titles won and all but one came on clay, the other on grass at Queen’s in ‘08.

Record after Wimbledon, 2005-2007
61 wins - 16 losses, a 79.22 winning percentage.
Of the 20 events played, 6 titles won, 3 on clay, 3 on hard courts and only 1 title, on clay, in the last 2 years.

How does that compare to Federer?

Record from January to Monte Carlo, 2005-2008
91 wins - 8 losses, a 91.9 winnig percentage.
Of the 20 events played, 12 titles won, 11 on hard courts and 1 on clay.

Record from Monte Carlo through Wimbledon, 2005-2008
98 wins - 12 losses, a 89.1 winning percentage.
Of the 20 events played, 8 titles won, 2 on clay and 6 on grass.

Record after Wimbledon, 2005-2007
86 wins - 6 losses, a 93.4 winning percentage.
Of the 18 events played, 13 titles won, all on hard courts.

Can Nadal Catch Federer?

Short answer: No. Nadal is great from April to Early July. Before and after that, he’s incredibly beatable and has not made any progress on hard courts like he has on grass and is in fact, regressing. With only 4 weeks of grass court tennis and the summer and fall on hard or carpet, he needs to stay competitive and healthy or else he will get passed by Novak Djokovic and others in the rankings as they progress on faster courts and Nadal does not.

Nadal plays a very physical game and is incredibly muscular. Should he, *knock on wood*, get injured prior to the clay court season with a muscle tear or stress fracture, he could drop dramtically in the rankings given the vast majority of points he has to defend comes during that time. As he gets older and the more physical he gets during his play, the risk of injury only increases. It’s often said that it’s remarkable how Federer hasn’t had a significant injury to either his back, legs or shoulder and hinder his performance. It’s one of the main reasons why he has been so dominant. Steffi Graf suffered numerous injuries during her career and both Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi had to deal with health problems. Federer has had a great run healthwise and it’s hard to imagine that Nadal will have a similar run.

Is Nadal Really The Wimbledon Favourite?

Not really. Granted he won in Queen’s but that’s not enough to predict Wimbledon success. He certainly had his chances in last year’s final but couldn’t capitalize not because he faltered but because Federer raised his game as he often does on grass.

The beat down in Paris, did it really affect Federer? Considering he went on to win in Halle without dropping serve is remarkable. In his opening match at Wimbledon, Federer never had a break point on his serve. The talk about others such as Soderling and Djokovic challenging him is premature and even Nadal knows that Federer is as dominant on grass as he is on clay.

It was shown in his match against Nishikori, Karlovic and Djokovic that Nadal has vulnerabilites still on grass and that a Wimbledon title is far from a sure thing.

In what should come as no surprise, Rafael Nadal has been suffering from a foot injury since 2005. Nadal’s coach and uncle, Tony Nadal, said the problem is serious but would not comment on whether the injury is career threatening.

“I prefer not to answer. It’s very serious. I don’t know [if it's career-threatening]. I’ll let the doctor reply to that. He has to take a lot of precautions when he plays.”

The secret to Nadal’s success is that he is so quick and his game is almost violently physical. For the last few years, Nadal has been strong in the first half of the season then his results take a noticeable hit in the second half.

Nadal won the French Open for the third time this year, along with 5 other titles. His last big result was pushing Federer to 5 sets in the Wimbledon final.

The question then begs, if Rafael Nadal’s career is cut short due to injury, who then would be able to compete with Roger Federer?

Two days ago, David Ferrer beat Rafael Nadal. Today, he gave Nadal a gift. Nadal beat third ranked Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4 to keep Djokovic winless in round robin play in his first trip to the Masters Cup. Still, Nadal needed a Ferrer win to keep Richard Gasquet from having a chance to move into the semifinals. Ferrer did just that and beat Gasquet 6-1, 6-1 in a rout.

Andy Roddick already made the semifinals and will face Roger Federer on Friday. If Federer wins, he will be the last semifinalist no matter if Davydenko wins as Federer has an edge in sets won.

Roger Federer drew Andy Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez and Nikolay Davydenko in the Red Group when the Masters Cup draw was selected on Wednesday.

The Gold Group, which opens play on Sunday, includes Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet.

Federer is of course the favourite to win his fourth Masters Cup title. Nadal isn’t in top form and Federer’s draw is similar to that of the US Open when he beat Roddick and Davydenko en route to the title.

Djokovic is also a threat and a rematch of the US Open finals is most likely what we will get in just over a week.