Future Tennis Stars

After losing the 2008 Wimbledon final, Roger Federer’s critics called it a career. He was finished and wouldn’t win another Slam. That lasted all of 2 months. Federer beat Andy Murray for the US Open title in September. Federer did lose the Australian Open title and broke down in the trophy presentation. Roger fought through the early hardcourt season and had his famous racket breaking in Miami and wouldn’t win his first title until Madrid, beating Nadal in the final. Of course everyone knows that Federer went on to win the French and beat Andy Roddick to win Wimbledon.

Now, Federer loses in the quarterfinals of the French to Robin Soderling, who beat Nadal at the 2009 French. Roger then loses to Berdych in the quarters at Wimbledon. Nevermind that Berdych is a solid player who went on to beat Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. But Roger? Sorry, his Grand Slam winning days are almost over.

Or are they?

If you look at any of the great players, they all have lapses in play at some point. It is surprising that Federer has been able to win 16 Grand Slams in under 7 years, from the 2003 Wimbledon to the 2010 Australian Open. It’s also why Federer is being questioned now. After reaching 23 Grand Slam semifinals, losing in the quarterfinals of 2 in a row seems catastrophic.

Let’s take a look at a couple of other all time greats who managed to go a few Grand Slams without winning but managed to pull themselves out of it.

Steffi Graf

I consider Steffi Graf to be the greatest player of all time. Martina Navratilova was great, no question, but for reasons I won’t go into now, Steffi is who I consider to be the greatest. She won a total of 22 Grand Slams but even she managed to struggle and go over a year without taking a Slam title. Steffi won the 1994 Australian Open 6-0, 6-2 over Arantxa Sanchez Vicario. It wasn’t so much a romp as a complete and utter beat down. It was also Steffi’s fourth Australian title and it seemed like nothing would stop her from winning a second calendar Grand Slam.

Then it went completely weird. Steffi was ripped in the semifinals at the French Open 6-2, 6-2 by Mary Pierce. At Wimbledon, Graf was beaten in the first round in a historic upset by Lori McNeil 7-5, 7-6. Sure McNeil reached the semifinals and nearly made the final but still, Graf had won 5 of the last 6 Wimbledon titles including the previous three. It was ridiculous that she would lose in the first round at any major, let alone Wimbledon. Steffi went on to lose in the US Open final to Sanchez Vicario. Because Steffi didn’t play the 1995 Australian Open due to injury, Sanchez Vicario would go on to take Steffi’s top ranking in the spring on a few occasions.

However Steffi was able to come back to top form. She won the 1995 French, Wimbledon and US Open titles, a feat she repeated in 1996. She also won the French Open in 1999 after battling numerous injuries.

Of course Steffi isn’t the only great player to suffer a few losses in Grand Slams before returning to top form.

Pete Sampras

After taking the Wimbledon title in 1994, there seemed little that Sampras couldn’t win. He was the obvious favourite to take the US Open later that summer but was stunned in the fourth round by unseeded Jamie Yzaga in 5 sets. Sampras did manage to reach the final of the Australian Open in 1995 but lost to Andre Agassi. His top ranking was also gone, Agassi became the number one ranked player in April and held it until November. Sampras of course didn`t fare well at the French Open, losing in the first round. Of course he did rebound to take the Wimbledon title, his first Grand Slam win in a year.

Can Federer Recover?

Of course he can, if he wants to. Now it’s about dedication. He’s a father and it’s been obvious for a couple of years now, the weekly events don’t matter much to Roger. Unless he crashes out at the US Open before the second week, there is no need to panic and even if he does, it isn’t the end of the world. People will argue that Sampras and Graf were still in their prime when they had their Grand Slam droughts. Is Federer out of his prime? Hard to say until his career is over. Graf was a veteran player when she was struggling. Rivals weren’t a big problem to her, Seles was still out from her stabbing. Sanchez Vicario wasn’t a big rival to Graf and neither were others like Martinez or Novotna. Sampras was very much in his prime during his drought.

What Federer has going for him is this: he’s still injury free. Rafael Nadal is injury prone and the health of his knees was questioned once again at Wimbledon. It was said that he will have to undergo some mystery procedure in the summer and it’s hard to say if it will work, and if it does, how long it will work for. Nadal typically checks out in the summer, having put so much effort into the first half of the year. Hopefully he has a great showing at the US Open where he hasn’t yet reached the final.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are hardly contenders for Slams and are prone to choking when they get their chances. Only Djokovic has a Grand Slam title and that was 2 1/2 years ago.

Federer’s issue seems to be with the tall, heavy hitters like Del Potro, Soderling, Berdych and others. Roddick is almost a nonissue at this point and hasn’t beaten Federer at a Grand Slam.

The most important thing for Roger now is to work on his fitness to stay healthy. Injuries late in a career are disastrous, just as Steffi Graf who missed almost a year and a half. Dedicating himself to the game will be hard with a wife and twin baby girls. More Grand Slams are waiting for Roger Federer, it’s just a matter of how much does he want them?

Later tonight, Roger Federer will take on Lleyton Hewitt for the 24th time. Roger will look for his 15th straight win over Hewitt while Hewitt is looking to beat Federer for the first time since 2003. Only twice have they met in Melbourne, in the fourth round at the 2004 Australian Open and in the 2003 Davis Cup semifinals where Hewitt got his last win over Roger.

Much will be made about how Hewitt has improved and how Roger may not be as motivated after winning his 15th Grand Slam. There is no doubt though that when it comes to Hewitt, Roger is going to be as focused and driven as he can be.

Can the home crowd pull Lleyton through? We will have to wait and see but until then, let’s hope we get some great tennis like we have in the past from these two.

Congratulations Rafael Nadal, you’re officially, finally, the top ranked player in the world.

Now comes the hard part: staying the top ranked player in the world.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Nadal, he’s the perfect rival for Federer. Now that Nadal is number 1 and Federer is number 2, it only adds another dimension to their rivalry. Only 770 points separate Federer and Nadal.

Now no one can see into the future. Nadal could hold this ranking for a year, two years, three years or six months. What Nadal will see now is that he isn’t chasing anyone anymore. He’s caught Federer and now he’s the top dog and everyone, especially Roger, is chasing him.

Here’s how this could break down for Nadal. How long he lasts at number 1 depends mostly on how well he plays, not necessarily on how well everyone else plays. As I have said in a previous post ( Rafael Nadal Is Great…But Is No Federer ), Nadal is historically an average player from January to May and July to November. This year though, he’s not just better, he’s a totally different player. He reached the semis in Melbourne, semis in Indian Wells and finals in Miami. After his usual clay court tear, he won Queen’s, Wimbledon, Toronto and reached the semis in Cincinnati then won the gold in Beijing. I don’t know who this Rafael Nadal is but he’s definitely not the one who won only 1 title last year after Wimbledon, on clay in Stuttgart last year.

So why could this not last for Nadal?

For one, he has been doing so well for so much of the year that you have to wonder when, or if, this will all catch up to him. Will he crash out of the US Open after an exhausting summer and do little in the fall? Will he be unable to recapture the points he gained in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami? Will he have a meltdown during the clay court season and lose the bulk of his points?

All fair questions considering Nadal is such a physical player. The taxing season takes its toll on everyone and Nadal is not immune. As great a physical specimen as he is, he will eventually tire or suffer an injury trying to push himself too hard. If anyone has to reconsider his schedule, it’s him.

What’s next for Federer?

Well, it’s simple: play better. He’s the 4 time defending champion at the US Open and he needs to win it again. A Slam is 1000 points in the rankings and Roger can’t afford to give up any to Nadal. Following the US Open, Federer has a total of 1325 points to defend from Madrid, Basel, Paris and Shanghai. Compare that to Nadal’s paltry 625 points from Madrid, Paris and Shanghai and Nadal could gain quite a bit more from Federer if Roger doesn’t step it up in a hurry.

But there is hope for you Fed fanatics out there.

From January to April of this year, Nadal racked up 1245 points in Chennai, Melbourne, Rotterdam, Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami.  Federer for his part has 975 points from Melbourne, Dubai (he actually has none there), Indian Wells, Miami and Estoril. Roger could pick up a lot of points here if Nadal doesn’t revert back to his form from 2005-2007 where he was just average on hard courts.

From after Roland Garros and up to, but not including, Beijing (since it won’t count next year), Federer has a grand total of 1005 points. Nadal meanwhile has almost double that with 1950 points.

Was this year a fluke, or a sign of what’s to come?

It’s hard to imagine that Federer is going downhill just yet. Sure he’s on a slippery slope right now but usually when a player starts the long road into retirement, it’s marked by injuries or personal troubles. None of which Federer has, that we know of anyway. Sampras, Graf, Seles, Capriati, Agassi either were hurt or had serious girlfriends who they eventually married, the so-called wife jinx. When was the last time Federer showed up to a tournament with his leg taped? He probably leads the tour in fewest requests for the trainer. We all know he had mono at the start of the year which threw off his training and his year didn’t really begin until Monte Carlo. Still, after early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati you have to wonder just what is going on with Roger and his mighty forehand. He needs to prove that this year was a mistake, out of sight and out of mind and focus on the task at hand: winning.

Rafael for his part needs to find a way to do what he did this year all the time. He has never competed at the top level year round before and if his body can take the stress, then he could easily dominate on hard courts, clay and grass. The key to his continued success is the clay court season but it may be too much for him. The constant pounding on clay and the need to win Monte Carlo, Rome, Hamburg, Paris and not to mention Barcelona as well is a tad much. He needs to move away from being the greatest clay courter to being the greatest period. If he doesn’t win Monte Carlo, fine. If he doesn’t win in Paris, it’s ok, as long as it means he will be able to compete in Montreal, New York, Miami, Melbourne on a consistent basis.

For the first time in 4 1/2 years, Federer isn’t the top ranked player. Now an incredible year just got even better.

Roger Federer had a much harder time than most people thought he would. Personally I thought he looked really sluggish in the first couple of sets and was among those who thought Tipsarevic would pull the upset. Still, this is a great match and an amazing win for Federer. Like many have said, it’s rare when Federer gets into a tough situation and has to fight his way out like he did at Wimbledon against Nadal. It was a gut check for him against Tipsarevic and he came though.

Everyone thought that Fabrice Santoro would give Roger Federer a hard time. If this is how Federer meets tough competition without playing a warmup event, the rest of the field will be in a tough, but very familiar situation.

Federer so completely dominated Santoro, it wasn’t even funny expect to Santoro. When Federer missed an easy overhead, Santoro ran around in circles as if he won the match. As Federer was about to win the match, Santoro pleaded for mercy, looking at the scoreboard. Federer paused, then served out the match taking the last 10 games in yet another awe-inspiring 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 romp.

So why is this such a big deal? Santoro is the oldest player in the draw and Federer is an all-time great, shouldn’t this have been expected? Sure, Federer was supposed to beat Santoro but again, this is Fabrice Santoro. Regardless of his age and the fact he’s now played in 62 Grand Slams, he can still give the best players fits and isn’t prone to upsetting the odd top 1o player every now and then. Not to mention that Federer didn’t play any warm up events, hasn’t played in a tournament since the Masters Cup and no one knew if this may be the first time he doesn’t win a Slam outside of Paris in God knows how long. Still, Federer shows that he is perfection personified and that no matter what we may think, he’s not ready to go downhill yet.

Roger Federer and Justine Henin were named the ITF Champions for 2007. Seriously, they put out a press release for that? I guess they had to but it’s not like anyone was within spitting distance of them.

“Every year brings new challenges, and I am proud that I have been able to raise the level of my game when needed,” said Federer, who won three Grand Slam titles this year and reached the final at the French Open.

“This has definitely been the best season of my career,” said Henin, who was 63-4 with 10 titles in 2007 after skipping the Australian Open for personal reasons related to splitting up with her husband. “It has been a very challenging year overall, but I have stayed positive and proved that nothing is impossible if you work hard.”

Read the entire article at ESPN.com

The first match between Roger Federer and Pete Sampras wasn’t close. The second match lived up to the hype.

Federer battled Sampras and won again, this time in a 90 minute, 7-6 (8-6), 7-6 (7-5) thriller. Sampras had his rocket serve and laser like forehands down the line on full display on Thursday preventing another Federer steamroll.

“I was impressed with Pete tonight,” Federer told reporters. “He played some unbelievable shots, but then again he is capable of doing that. He had an incredible serve which was so difficult to read tonight.”

The last of the three matches between the two will take place on Saturday in Macau.

Two days ago, David Ferrer beat Rafael Nadal. Today, he gave Nadal a gift. Nadal beat third ranked Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4 to keep Djokovic winless in round robin play in his first trip to the Masters Cup. Still, Nadal needed a Ferrer win to keep Richard Gasquet from having a chance to move into the semifinals. Ferrer did just that and beat Gasquet 6-1, 6-1 in a rout.

Andy Roddick already made the semifinals and will face Roger Federer on Friday. If Federer wins, he will be the last semifinalist no matter if Davydenko wins as Federer has an edge in sets won.

Roger Federer drew Andy Roddick, Fernando Gonzalez and Nikolay Davydenko in the Red Group when the Masters Cup draw was selected on Wednesday.

The Gold Group, which opens play on Sunday, includes Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer and Richard Gasquet.

Federer is of course the favourite to win his fourth Masters Cup title. Nadal isn’t in top form and Federer’s draw is similar to that of the US Open when he beat Roddick and Davydenko en route to the title.

Djokovic is also a threat and a rematch of the US Open finals is most likely what we will get in just over a week.