Future Tennis Stars

With Novak Djokovic beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for the Australian Open title, I thought it would be fun to go back and look at the top players and pick out the turning points in their career. This weekend may very well turn out to be one of those moments for those two men.

So what makes a performance a breakthrough?

A breakthrough performance is when a player, typically a fringe player or one who has gained notoriety for underachieving, then gains success at a Grand Slam. The performance is seen as a turning point in the career and the player goes on to a high level of success. A player can breakthrough at anytime in their career, whether they be 18 or 28, it doesn’t matter.

I’ve compiled a list of some of the more memorable breakthroughs in recent memory, and by that I mean the last 20 some years, more or less in order. Some players have good success like David Nalbandian, some achieve greatness like Marat Safin while others obtain immortality (you know who I’m talking about).

DAVID NALBANDIAN

Breakout Event – 2002 Wimbledon
David Nalbandian was nothing more than a dark horse going into Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps getting to the third round where he would surely lose to a higher ranked opponent. Nalbandian however, didn’t face an opponent ranked in the top 30 until the quarterfinals when he beat Nicolas Lapentti in 5 sets. Nalbandian beat Xavier Malisse in a very memorable semifinals, also going 5 sets. David lost however to the world number 1 ranked player, Lleyton Hewitt easily in the finals.

Ranking Before – 32
Ranking After – 15

Prior Success
David Nalbandian had little success in ATP Tour level tournaments, winning instead on the Challenger circuit. In late 2001, David lost in the third round at the US Open and later that fall he reached the finals of an ATP tournament in Palermo, Italy. In 2002, he won his first ATP tournament in Estoril and posted mediocre results going into Wimbledon.

Success After Breakout
Nalbandian went on to reach the quarters at the Masters Series event in Toronto and after a lackluster summer, won his second tournament of the year in Basel where he beat Tim Henman and Roger Federer, both ranked in the top 10. Nalbandian himself broke into the top 10 in February 2003. In 2005 at the year end Tennis Masters Cup, David beat Roger Federer in a fifth set tiebreaker to beat the world’s number one ranked player and the title. In 2007, he beat Roger Federer in successive tournaments to show that after a brief dip in play, he is ready once again to challenge the top players.

David has reached the semifinals or better at all 4 Grand Slams; the Australian Open semis in 2006, the French Open semis in 2004 and 2006 and the US Open semis in 2003.

Nalbandian has a 248 – 125 lifetime win/loss record and has 7 career singles titles. He has won $8,401,559 and his highest singles ranking is #3 back in 2006.

PATRICK RAFTER

Breakout Event – 1997 US Open
Pat cruised through the first three rounds of the Open easily beating Andrei Medvedev, Magnus Norman and Lionel Roux without dropping a set. Rafter needed 4 sets to beat then 63rd ranked Andre Agassi in the fourth round and beat Magnus Larsson in the quarters in straight sets.

Pat dropped 10 games against world No. 2 Michael Chang in the semifinals and beat Canadian-born Brit Greg Rusedski in four sets for the title.

Ranking Before – 14
Ranking After – 3

Prior Success
Rafter’s breakthrough more than half-way through his career. He turned pro in 1991 and won his first title in Manchester in 1994, it was the only title he would win before his US Open Championship.

He started 1997 ranked 63rd in the world but after reached a few finals and the semifinals of the French Open, he cracked the top 20.

Success After Breakout
Pat went on to defend his US Open title in 1998, defeating countryman Mark Philippoussis in 4 sets for the title. He came back from a 2 set deficit in the first round to Hicham Arazi and beat world No. 1 ranked Pete Sampras in 5 sets in the semifinals.

In total, Pat would win 11 career singles titles and 10 career doubles titles. He reached the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2001 and played in two Wimbledon finals in 2000 and 2001. He became the No. 1 ranked player in the world on July 26, 1999 which he held for all of a week.

He retired in 2002 with a lifetime singles win/loss record of 358 - 191 and was elected to the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 2006.

MARAT SAFIN

Breakout Event – 1998 French Open
Safin qualified for, then upset Andre Agassi in 5 sets in the first round then upset defending champion Gustavo Kuerten in the second round, again in 5 sets. Safin needed 4 sets to beat Daniel Vacek in the third round before losing to Cedric Pioline in the fourth round after leading 2 sets to 1.

Ranking Before – 116
Ranking After – 72

Prior Success
Safin’s notable matches before this came on the Challenger circuit with a win in 1997 at Espinho, Portugal. Safin gained attention by taking Jim Courier to five sets in a loss in Davis Cup prior to the French Open.

Success After Breakout
Safin reached the semifinals in Long Island then reached the fourth round at the US Open a week later, losing to Pete Sampras in straight sets. Safin finished the year ranked 49^th in the world.

Safin went on to win 15 titles in his career including the 2000 US Open, easily beating Pete Sampras and the 2005 Australian Open which featured a great match against Roger Federer in the semifinals..

So far, Safin has earned $13,142,980 in his career and has a 379 – 221 lifetime win/loss record and held the number 1 ranking in the world for 9 weeks in 2000.

GUSTAVO KUERTEN

Breakout Event – 1997 French Open
Kuerten received no attention for beating Slava Dosedel and Jonas Bjorkman in the first two rounds. Kuerten then upset Thomas Muster in 5 sets, then pulled another upset in 5 sets over Andrei Medvedev. Gustavo then upset world #3 Yevgeny Kafelnikov, again in 5 sets. After a 4 set win over little known Filip Dewulf, Kuerten had his easiest win of the tournament in the finals over world #19 Sergi Bruguera.

Ranking Before – 66
Ranking After – 15

Prior Success
Gustavo Kuerten really came out of nowhere to win the French title. His only notable results were both loses in Davis Cup against the US. Kuerten lost in 4 sets to MaliVai Washington and Jim Courier.

Success After Breakout
Kuerten reached the finals of a tournament in Bologna right after the French Open and lost in the finals of the ATP Masters Series event in Toronto later that summer and broke into the Top 10 in the world after the loss. After a third round showing at the US Open, Kuerten accomplished little that fall.

In 1999, Kuerten won Masters Series events in Monte Carlo and Rome. He reached the quarterfinals at the French Open and more impressively, at Wimbledon becoming the first Brazilian to get that far since 1967. Kuerten also reached the final 8 at the US Open at the end of the summer. Kuerten finished the year ranked #5.

Kuerten won the French Open again in 2000 and again in 2001.

In an injury riddled career, Kuerten won 20 singles titles and 8 doubles titles and has a lifetime win/loss record of 358 – 191. He won $14,750,088 in his career and held the world number 1 ranking for a total of 43 weeks including 30 consecutive weeks in 2001.

BORIS BECKER

Breakout Event – 1985 Wimbledon
Boris Becker entered Wimbledon in 1985 ranked 20 and unseeded. In the first two rounds, Becker had little trouble. In the third round he beat 8^th ranked Joakim Nystrom, winning 9-7 in the fifth set. Becker again needed 5 sets to beat Tim Mayotte in the fourth round. After a 4 set win over 6^th ranked Anders Jarryd, Becker beat 9^th ranked Kevin Curran in 4 sets to take the title. At the time, Becker was the youngest player to win a Grand Slam title at 17 years, 7 months.

Ranking Before – 20
Ranking After – 10

Prior Success
Becker had little prior success to winning Wimbledon mainly because he turned pro only a year before. He started 1985 ranked 62^nd and reached the quarterfinals at Rotterdam and Las Vegas then the semifinals in Rome. Becker won his first title at Queen’s Club the week before Wimbledon. Becker beat only two players ranked in the top 20, 7^th ranked Pat Cash and 16^th ranked Johan Kriek.

Success After Breakout
Becker successfully defended his Wimbledon title in 1986. He won Wimbledon for the third and final time in 1989 and also won the US Open title for the only time, later that summer. Becker won two Grand Slam titles in the 1990’s: the 1991 and 1996 Australian Open titles. He also won the year ending championships in 1988, 1992 and 1995. Becker reached the French Open semifinals in 1987, 1989 and 1991. He reached the US Open semifinals in 1986, 1990 and 1995. Boris was a Wimbledon finalist in 1988, 1990, 1991 and 1995 and a semifinalist in 1993 and 1994.

Becker went on to win 49 career singles titles and first became the world’s number 1 ranked player on January 28, 1991. Boris also won 15 career doubles titles including the 1992 Olympic Gold medal.

PETE SAMPRAS

Breakout Event – 1990 US Open
Pete didn’t drop a set or face a strong opponent in his first 3 rounds. In the fourth round he beat 6^th ranked Thomas Muster in 4 sets. In the quarterfinals, Sampras beat 3^rd ranked Ivan Lendl in 5 sets, ending Lendl’s streak of 8 consecutive US Open finals. In the semifinals, Sampras beat John McEnroe in 4 sets before defeating Andre Agassi, the third top 10 player Sampras beat, in straight sets for the title.

Ranking Before – 12
Ranking After – 5

Prior Success
Pete reached the fourth round of the US Open in 1989, beating defending champion Mats Wilander in the second round. Sampras won his first ATP level tournament in Philadelphia in February 1990. Pete won his second title in Manchester in June of 1990 where the highest ranked player he faced was 56^th, Alexander Volkov.

Success After Breakout
Pete finished 1990 ranked a career best No. 5 in the world.

Pete won the Australian Open in 1994 and 1997 and won 7 Wimbledon titles in 1993 - 1995 and 1997-2000. Pete won the US Open in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2002. Sampras won the season ending championships in 1991, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 1999.

Pete held the No. 1 ranking for a total of 286 weeks and has a lifetime win/loss record of 762 – 222. He won 64 singles titles and $43,280,489 in prize money.

ROGER FEDERER

Breakout Event – 2001 Wimbledon
Roger had little trouble in his first round straight set win over Christophe Rochus but needed five sets to beat Xavier Malisse. After a straight set win over Jonas Bjorkman, Federer beat four-time defending champion Pete Sampras in the fourth round 7-6(7) 5-7 6-4 6-7(2) 7-5. In the quarterfinals, Roger lost to Tim Henman in 4 sets.

Ranking Before – 15
Ranking After – 14

Prior Success
Prior to his breakthrough at Wimbledon, Roger was known for his potential but lack of results. Federer won his first career singles title in Milan early in 2001 and almost single-handily beat the USA in Davis Cup in February 2001. Federer won both his singles matches and teamed to win the doubles match to take the tie 3-2. Roger also reached the quarterfinals at the French Open where the highest ranked player he faced was the 59^th ranked Wayne Arthurs.

Success After Breakout
Roger lost to Andre Agassi in the fourth round at the US Open and lost in the finals to Tim Henman in Basel.

Roger went on to win the Australian Open in 2004, 2006 and 2007. He is a five-time Wimbledon champion (2003-2007) and a four-time US Open champion (2004-2007). Roger has also won the season ending Tennis Masters Cup 4 times in 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007. Federer has also held the world’s number 1 ranking for a record 208 consecutive weeks.

Roger has amassed a 551 – 134 career win/loss record and 53 career singles titles. Federer also won 7 doubles titles and $38,707,078 in prize money.

IN CONCLUSION

What, no Agassi, Baghdatis, Gasquet…no Nadal or Djokovic but you picked Nalbandian??

Ok, so you could view this as the top most unlikely moments rather than breakthroughs, but it’s my list, I’m calling them breakthroughs. Don’t forget that Nadal won his first French Open as a favourite and was ranked in the top 5. That’s a little different from Roger Federer who won only 1 title and showed no signs of challenging or being capable of beating Pete Sampras on grass.

I could sit here all day and point out exactly when the great players became great, but what fun would that be? Sure I could have put Nadal on here with his first French win but other than his French titles, he’s still young and it’s really too recent. At least with Roger, he went on to so much success so fast you can’t leave the guy off the list.

Djokovic has only 1 Slam, again, I’m picking people who came out of nowhere, went on to win multiple Slams, hold the top ranking and achieve some measure of immortality (with the exception of Nalbandian). With Djokovic, we don’t know if he will ever win another Slam.

Andre Agassi wasn’t included because he was so hyped early in his career that it seemed to be more surprising when he lost than when he won. Going into the 1990 US Open, he was the favourite and almost no one paid attention to Sampras. In a career that was a roller coaster like no other, his win at Wimbledon was viewed by fans as overdue or completely unexpected.

I believe there is such a thing as ‘living up to your potential’ which I don’t count as a breakthrough. Agassi’s win at Wimbledon was more of ‘Finally!’ rather than ‘Holy Crap’. Not to mention he already won 15 titles prior to Wimbledon. Likewise, Lleyton Hewitt won 9 titles prior to his win at the 2001 US Open.

I didn’t take junior success as a factor simply because top juniors more often than not become top pros. I didn’t include Richard Gasquet even though he was a highly touted junior. His win over Roger Federer in Monte Carlo was nearly 3 years ago and his next biggest success was Wimbledon of this year. Others like Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are simply too recent and the tennis world is waiting to see if they will go on to great success or if their Slam performances are simply a fluke.

Earlier tonight, Jelena Jankovic beat Serena Williams, the defending champion, in straight sets 6-3, 6-4. On paper you would think this was a stunning result but if you saw any of the match you would know that Serena was incredibly flat and served poorly. Not to take anything away from Jelena’s win, she certainly did everything she needed to keep Serena from getting into the match, breaking her almost at will including the final game to take the match.

Jelena has now reached her third Slam semifinal where she will face either Justine Henin or Maria Sharapova. You just know that Jelena would rather face Maria. Against Sharapova Jankovic is 1-3 with her only win coming on grass last year at Birmingham. Against Henin though, she is 0-9 and all four meetings in 2007 were straight set wins for Henin.

Roger Federer had a much harder time than most people thought he would. Personally I thought he looked really sluggish in the first couple of sets and was among those who thought Tipsarevic would pull the upset. Still, this is a great match and an amazing win for Federer. Like many have said, it’s rare when Federer gets into a tough situation and has to fight his way out like he did at Wimbledon against Nadal. It was a gut check for him against Tipsarevic and he came though.

Here are the last couple of games to Agnieszka Radwanska’s win over Svetlana Kuznetsova. This is the second time that Radwanska has upset a Russian seeded second in the third round of a Grand Slam. Think Chakvetadze or Dementieva would want to try their luck against her at the French Open? I doubt it.

Maria Kirilenko finall broke through at a Grand Slam with a 6-7 (6), 6-1, 6-2 win over sixth seeded Anna Chakvetadze.

While a lot of people are calling it shocking, I would say it’s more surprising than anything. This wasn’t the first time that Agnieszka Radwanska was facing a second seeded Russian in the third round of a Grand Slam on the main court. It was the second consecutive time and like her upset of Sharapova at the US Open last year, Radwanska came through with ease, upsetting Kuznetsova 6-3, 6-4.

The reason it’s not surprising is that the upset was over Kuznetsova, the one player of the top 4 seeds that no one ever talks about unless it’s a footnote with the other results. Many have said that Kuznetsova is undeserving of her No. 2 ranking and while I wouldn’t go that far, it doesn’t look like she will have that ranking for much longer.

The question remains then, with Agnes Szavay out, Victoria Azarenka gone and Tamira Paszek out in the first round, is Radwanska the best of the newcomers? She will be the favourite in her next match against either Nadia Petrova or Ekaterina Makarova and as we noted before, has pulled a big upset once before and is comfortable playing the top ranked players.

We’ll have to wait and see, she could get as far as the semifinals before having to play either Venus Williams or Ana Ivanovic.

Man, if we were tired of Maria Kirilenko always losing in the first or second round of a Grand Slam, imagine how she felt.

“Usually I’m losing like every time in the first round in a Grand Slam” said Kirilenko after her 6-7 (6), 6-1, 6-2 win over Anna Chakvetadze who trained at the same club in Moscow as Kirilenko when they were both juniors.

This has been a long time coming for Kirilenko who has had some success on the WTA Tour especially at the end of last year winning the title in India and losing a three set match to Venus Williams in Seoul.

Kirilenko will next face either Virginia Ruano Pascual or Daniela Hantuchova.

Man, I cannot stand Pam Shriver.

At every Grand Slam, ESPN tortures us with the ever annoying Pam Shriver. Why do they do this to us? Her voice is not great to listen to, of all the commentators, hers is the worst. Her biggest success was at the 1978 US Open. That’s it. Oh sure she did manage to win a bunch of Grand Slam doubles titles but who did she win them with? Martina Navratilova. That’s not saying much old Pammie. Martina could have played doubles with a lawn chair as a partner and used a rolled up newspaper as her racket and won as many Slams.

The worst thing about Shriver is that she just cannot relate to today’s game. She hasn’t played against any of these players and while not many commentators out there know what it’s like to face Sharapova’s serve, Shriver pulled out the worst comparison tonight after Fernando Gonzalez was upset. Gonzalez was the runner up last year and with his loss tonight he will now drop out of the top 20. Shriver dusted off the fact that she reached the finals of the US Open and lost to a qualifier in the first round the next year and dropped a lot of points (I can’t remember what her ranking was, I tend not to pay too much attention to her). And just what year did she reach the finals of the US Open? 1978. That’s 30 years people! Can’t they get someone who is a little more……recent?

If I can give Pam a little advice and not like she gives a crap what I think, but it’s this: talk a little less, talk a lot less about your career, don’t ever try and relate to today’s players considering they are less than half your age. Just stick to general questions and comments and we will all be better for it.

Rod Laver Arena

11:00 AM Start
Anna Chakvetadze (RUS)[6] v. Maria Kirilenko (RUS)[27]
Marin Cilic (CRO) v. Fernando Gonzalez (CHI)[7]
Roger Federer (SUI)[1] v. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)

Rod Laver Arena

7:30 PM Start
Venus Williams (USA)[8] v. Sania Mirza (IND)[31]
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)[19] v. Marcos Baghdatis (CYP)[15]

Vodafone Arena

11:00 AM Start
Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)[29] v. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)[2]
James Blake (USA)[12] v. Sebastien Grosjean (FRA)
Katarina Srebotnik (SLO)[28] v. Ana Ivanovic (SRB)[4]
Novak Djokovic (SRB)[3] v. Sam Querrey (USA)

MCA

11:00 AM Start
Juan Monaco (ARG)[21] v. Tomas Berdych (CZE)[13]
Virginia Ruano Pascual (ESP) v. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK)[9]
Jessica Moore (AUS)/Greg Jones (AUS) v. Rennae Stubbs (AUS)/Todd Perry (AUS)
Lindsay Davenport (USA)/Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) v. Gabriela Navratilova (CZE)/Klara Zakopalova (CZE)
David Nalbandian (ARG)[10] v. Juan Carlos Ferrero (ESP)[22]

Show Court 2

11:00 AM Start
Vincent Spadea (USA) v. David Ferrer (ESP)[5]
Nadia Petrova (RUS)[14] v. Ekaterina Makarova (RUS)
Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS)/Amelie Mauresmo (FRA) v. Mariya Koryttseva (UKR)/Tatiana Perebiynis (UKR)
Tatiana Poutchek (BLR)/Andre Sa (BRA) v. Casey Dellacqua (AUS)/Robert Smeets (AUS)

Show Court 3

11:00 AM Start
Paul Hanley (AUS)[5]/Leander Paes (IND)[5] v. Rohan Bopanna (IND)/Rajeev Ram (USA)
Na Li (CHN)[24] v. Marta Domachowska (POL)
Sabine Lisicki (GER) v. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
Carsten Ball (AUS)/Adam Feeney (AUS) v. Leos Friedl (CZE)[16]/David Skoch (CZE)[16]

Court 6

11:00 AM Start
Alona Bondarenko (UKR)/Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) v. Shuai Peng (CHN)[8]/Tiantian Sun (CHN)[8]
Jeff Coetzee (RSA)/Wesley Moodie (RSA) v. Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA)/Gilles Simon (FRA)
Laura Granville (USA)/Vladimira Uhlirova (CZE) v. Yung-Jan Chan (TPE)[3]/Chia-Jung Chuang (TPE)[3]
Cara Black (ZIM)[1]/Paul Hanley (AUS)[1] v. Bethanie Mattek (USA)/Jordan Kerr (AUS)

Court 7

11:00 AM Start
Janette Husarova (SVK)[13]/Flavia Pennetta (ITA)[13] v. Chunmei Ji (CHN)/Shengnan Sun (CHN)
Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP)/Martin Garcia (ARG) v. Liezel Huber (USA)/Jamie Murray (GBR)
Emmanuelle Gagliardi (SUI)/Patty Schnyder (SUI) v. Victoria Azarenka (BLR)[12]/Shahar Peer (ISR)[12]
Lucas Arnold Ker (ARG)/Feliciano Lopez (ESP) v. Sebastien Grosjean (FRA)/Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) or Martin Damm (CZE)[4]/Pavel Vizner (CZE)[4]

Court 13

11:00 AM Start
Sybille Bammer (AUT)/Oliver Marach (AUT) v. Lisa Raymond (USA)[2]/Simon Aspelin (SWE)[2]
Virginie Razzano (FRA)/Rogier Wassen (NED) v. Monique Adamczak (AUS)/Stephen Huss (AUS)
Robert Lindstedt (SWE)/Jarkko Nieminen (FIN) v. Marc Gicquel (FRA)/Fabrice Santoro (FRA)
Yves Allegro (SUI)/Kristof Vliegen (BEL) v. Mahesh Bhupathi (IND)[6]/Mark Knowles (BAH)[6]

Court 18

11:00 AM Start
Arnaud Clement (FRA)[7]/Michael Llodra (FRA)[7] v. Eric Butorac (USA)[10]/Kevin Ullyett (ZIM)[10]
Olga Govortsova (BLR)/Darya Kustova (BLR) v. Jelena Jankovic (SRB)/Bethanie Mattek (USA)
Mariusz Fyrstenberg (POL)[11]/Marcin Matkowski (POL)[11] v. Thomas Johansson (SWE)/Andrei Pavel (ROU)

With Nikolay Davydenko wrapping up his match on Vodafone Arena, Serena Williams is about to meet up with Victoria Azarenka. Now upsetting Serena is a daunting task for any player not named Justine Henin, it’s not impossible and here is what Azarenka will have to do to pull it off.

1. She needs a high percentage of first serves in and to win a high percentage of second serve points.
2. Paint the corners. She will need to go deep in the court with her shots to get Serena pushed back and to hit the ball up.
3. Keep the points short. Azarenka can’t let Serena get into a rhythm and pound the ball away.
4. Hit the ball back to Serena then go for the winner deep in the corner.
5. Mix it up. Throw in slices and spins with the hard shots. Push Serena back, then throw in a drop shot.
6. Take care of her serve and move in when returning Serena’s serve especially on the second serve. Really move in, remember what Radwanska did against Sharapova at the US Open? Try that. If it doesn’t work, at least you took the chance, but if it does work, you’ll get in her head and make her over think her serve.
7. Push her to play her best earlier than she wants. Let’s face it, it’s the first week and it’s a third round match. Serena won’t play as hard as she would if it were a final against Ivanovic. If Azarenka can catch her off guard early in the match (not easy since Azarenka is seeded and has a lot of hype) Victoria could get a lead that she will have to work hard to maintain.

Good luck Victoria, we’re all pulling for you!